Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
